UPDATE: Rossi Wins!*

UPDATE 4: This is the sheet for the original count. If you’re looking for the recount data, go here.

My brother has graciously agreed to make his spreadsheet available for download. It’s at no charge, it’s small, and it’s probably virus-free.

UPDATE!!!: Due to the eagle eyes of Free Republic readers, a discrepancy in the sheet was discovered. It has been investigated and a new version of the spreadsheet has been uploaded. The problem was with the source data and not the spreadsheet, so the previous files should be okay. See more below on ‘Update 3’.


Click logo to download the file (56k). You need Microsoft Excel to run it, and a web connection for it to update the stats. It’s supposed to update automatically every ten minutes, and it pulls it’s data from KOMO in Seattle. It takes all votes already counted, figures the results by counties, takes outstanding ballots by county into consideration, and projects the final tally.

DISCLAIMER: Download this at your own risk. There will be no tech support. There will be no guarantees. There will be no refunds. This is just a simple Excel document. Murdoc Online washes its hands of it once you click that green logo.



(And a big “thanks” to my brother for helping us watch this race.)

UPDATE 11/16 10:31 ET:
Rossi leads by 304
Rossi projected to win by 1,019

UPDATE 2: We’ve come across a bit of an issue. The KOMO News site currently shows more total votes than the Washington Secretary of State site, and the difference is actually more than the number of uncounted ballots.

We’re not sure exactly what this means. In the past, the KOMO totals have almost always been ahead of and more accurate than any other source, but we can’t say for sure that this is the case this time.

Also, the county-by-county results are pulled from the Washington Secretary of State site, not KOMO. This means that the data the projections are based on isn’t exactly synchronized with the base data being extrapolated. Normally, this wouldn’t really matter, but this election is so close that it might make all the difference.

We’ll post an updated spreadsheet that includes both sets of data soon. Stay tuned.

UPDATE 3: An eagle-eyed reader from Free Republic noted that the vote totals were slightly off when compared to the Washington Secretary of State website. The problem was that some earlier votes which had been double-counted had not been removed from the KOMO site. They have been removed now, and the totals match.

An updated version of the spreadsheet using WA.gov totals to calculate the projection has been uploaded. Download it if you wish, though older versions should also be accurate.

WA.gov county-by-county data is used, so when the KOMO and WA.gov numbers aren’t synchronized the projections may be off by a bit. And a bit might be all it takes.

Current standings and projection as of 11/17 08:32 ET:
Rossi leads by 19
Rossi will win by 600


  1. Great work, murdoc, and this is wonderful news! I’ll lead with it tomorrow morning in the PRE-FACE. I assume you’re somewhat relieved. This says something about the ‘Kerry coattails,’ in that he couldn’t pull a gubanatorial candidate even in a State he won. The Dems might be in worse trouble than some of us even thought.

  2. Mordoc, great spread sheet. I think the race will be closer because King County will ‘find’ a few more votes, and the final KC counts will go more heavily toward Gregoire. I’m thinking we will see 300-500 vote Rossi victory.

  3. Came on by from a SoundPolitics.com referral. Downloaded your form and then visited the Terrorist Takedown website – COOL game and COOL promo video from a Polish music group (Analog).

  4. I hope your spreadsheet is right, Murdoc. What with the Dems ‘finding’ 10000 votes in King Co and going to court again. I’ll have some more links later today.

  5. The Dems might be in worse trouble than some of us even thought. Mark, I don’t think this race tells us much about the state of the Democratic party. Gregoire ran a decidedly uninspired campaign, Rossi ran a pretty good one. In super-Red Montana, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate ran a dynamite campaign and won. Here in Washington, some state senate and house candidates like Pridemore (49th) and Kilmer (26th) picked off GOP incumbants–by running good campaigns. This should have been a slam-dunk for Gregoire, and she blew it. That says more about her political skills and judgement than it does about the party as a whole.

  6. Umm, King County (as Democratic as counties get in WA) has somehow aquired 450 new ballots over the last few hours. When I went to bed, they had 1000 left, now they have 1450. I suppose it could be that the 1000 number was an estimate, but being off by close to 50% would only be good enough for government work. Oh, wait…

  7. Yeah, everyone’s panicking over the extra 450. See Shark for some info on this: http://www.soundpolitics.com/archives/003079.html

  8. Ah, no, there is a reason for the 450 votes. I’d heard this on the radio, but thought those votes were already included. These are provisional ballots that are being delivered by Democratic party workers, the big deal is that there’s no proof that the afidavits that they are bringing in are actually signed by the voters. Not saying whether or not they’re stooping to take the chance, but this gives them a wide opening to stuff the ballot box. If those votes don’t turn out to have the same proportion as the rest of the county, they should be scrutinized carefully. And I doubt they’ll have the same proportion, because the Dems have not interest in delivering afidavits from Republicans anyway. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002091969_gov16m.html

  9. Doesn’t work for me. I get a box: ‘Unable to open http://www.komotv.com/elections/race_result1003.asp. The internet site reports that a connection was established but the data is not available.’ Followed by similar messages for the other two links (I can open all three of them in my browser fine). I have W2K and O2K. Any ideas?

  10. Anon – Hmmmm. I can open it on O2K on W2K. I can’t think of any settings that would cause that problem, since you can view the sites with your browser.