Iraqi constitution seems likely to pass
Recall that it would take many months and many thousands of American lives simply to conquer Iraq.
Recall that, even if we managed to get control, the Iraqi people would never regain their sovereignty.
Recall that, even if we did give Iraq back to the Iraqis, it would simply be a puppet government that ruled.
Recall that, even if the government ever allowed elections, the Iraqi people wouldn’t be interested in participating.
Recall that, even if the Iraqis did want to vote, the violence in Iraq would prevent them from doing so.
Recall that, even if elections were held, they would be so corrupt as to be worthless.
Recall that, even if a freely-elected government was formed, they would never be able to keep control.
Recall that, even if a new Iraqi government did manage to run things, they would never agree on a permanent charter.
Recall that, even a charter acceptable to all government leaders was written, the Iraqi voters would never approve it.
Recall that, even if voters did approve a new constitution, it would be without much participation of the Sunnis and would therefore be meaningless.
And now we have this today from AP/MSNBC.com:
Oct. 16, 2005
BAGHDAD, Iraq – Iraq’s constitution seemed assured of passage Sunday despite strong opposition from Sunni Arabs who turned out in surprisingly high numbers in an effort to stop it.
The constitution’s apparent victory was muted, though, by the prospect that the vote result might divide the country further.
Apparently now that the constitution, with a great deal of Sunni participation, is being approved, it is BAD NEWS.
Let’s just say that it’s not a worst-case scenario we’re looking at here.
UPDATE: The fact that some extreme statements by the “pro-invasion side” are the only things the “anti-invasion side” can point out in response to a list of their basic beliefs simply underscores my point.
Despite overly-optimistic predictions at some points (such as the ‘they’ll greet us with roses’ theory) the basic position of regime change supporters has been “this is going to take some time”. The basic position of anti-regime change folks has been “this will never work”.